Monday, November 01, 2004

What's going to happen tomorrow

Well, I think Bush is going to win, and by a respectable margin. I believe in the "McGovern effect," in which many who say they will vote for Kerry will do otherwise in the voting booth, and I think polls are drifting W's way lately. But with an estimated 20% of the likely voters having done so on an absentee or early voting basis, exit poll numbers will be suspect in many states, not that they were ever anything but. I'd ignore everything said on TV or in a newspaper tomorrow, and maybe for a while after.

Attorneys will froth, allege unverifiable outrages and clog the wheels of progress. Pundits will bemoan how far Democracy has fallen, and do their best to position themselves as those who didn't get taken in by all the hype. They will all be lying. Democrats, who will lose one way or another, will manage to avoid the one lesson that might help in the future; that betraying one's principles in pursuit of a goal is always a disaster, and can't be blamed on anyone but yourself.

Last year I got sucked into the TV for a couple of weeks after election day, and as much fun as that was (I thought it so, but I guess it wasn't for many others), I'm not really willing to do it again. I will echo Ann Althouse's prayer, that whoever wins does so by a lot.

As long as it's not Kerry.

No comments: