Wednesday, October 19, 2005

No Sh#t

I've heard a lot of people complaining about how crazy the world has become lately, how dangerous and chaotic. Those people always strike me as ignorant of history in the extreme, and overly sensitive to the defeatist tone of the mainstream media. Finally someone has bothered to make that case scientifically:

Widespread fears about a world in a perpetual state of war are unfounded, a study says today. It emphasises that the number of conflicts between nations, civil wars, battle deaths, coups and genocides has been falling steeply for more than a decade.

While the authors note that bloody wars continue in Iraq, Afghanistan and Congo, they argue that there are substantial grounds for optimism.

The first Human Security Report, written by academics led by Andrew Mack, of the University of British Columbia, cites popular notions that war is becoming more common and deadlier, that genocide is rising and that terrorism poses the greatest threat to humanity.

"Not one of these claims is based on reliable data," it says. "All are suspect; some are demonstrably false. Yet they are widely believed because they reinforce popular assumptions."

The authors say there are 40 per cent fewer armed conflicts than in the early 1990s. Between 1991 and last year 28 wars for self-determination began but 43 were ended or contained.

In 1992, when the Yugoslav wars of secession began, there were 51 state-based conflicts around the world. The figure dropped to 32 in 2002 and 29 in 2003. The arms trade declined by a third from 1990 to 2003 and the number of refugees fell by 45 per cent between 1992 and 2003.

In 1950 each conflict killed 38,000 people on average. By 2002 that had dropped to 600.

Every time I hear some whiny ninny moaning about what interesting times we live in, I think of 1942, and 1862, and any number of other times that make the current state of affairs seem like a game of Candyland. Quit your bitching, punks. It gets a lot worse.

No comments: